What is True Count?
Running Count
Simple total of card values dealt. Starts at 0, goes up and down as cards are played.
Example: +8 running count
True Count
Running count divided by decks remaining. Shows your advantage per deck.
Example: +8 ÷ 3 decks = +2.67 true count
Why This Matters
A running count of +6 with 6 decks left gives you +1 true count (barely worth increasing bets). The same +6 with only 2 decks left gives you +3 true count (bet big!). True count tells you your real edge.
The True Count Formula
True Count =
Running Count
+12
Decks Remaining
4
True Count
+3.0
Always round down (floor) the true count. A true count of +2.9 becomes +2 for betting purposes.
How to Estimate Remaining Decks
Casinos don't tell you how many decks remain. You need to estimate by looking at the discard tray and dealing habits.
Visual Estimation
Look at Discard Tray
Estimate how many decks worth of cards are in the tray. Each deck is about 1-2 inches thick.
Count Cards Played
Keep a rough tally of cards dealt. Divide by 52 to estimate decks played.
Dealer Patterns
Learn how many cards each dealer burns and when they shuffle.
Common Scenarios
6-8 Deck Shoe
Most common. Cut card at 1-2 decks. Estimate 2.5-3.5 decks remaining mid-shoe.
Deep Penetration
Some casinos play 75-80% of cards. Better for counters, but harder to estimate.
Continuous Shuffle
Impossible to count. Each hand is from a fresh shuffle.
True Count Examples at Different Deck Depths
See how the same running count gives very different true counts depending on decks remaining:
| Running Count | 6 Decks Left | 4 Decks Left | 2 Decks Left | 1 Deck Left | Betting Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +6 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +6.0 | Minimum bet |
| +6 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +6.0 | Increase bet |
| +6 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +6.0 | Large bet |
| +6 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +6.0 | Maximum bet |
Key Insight:
The deeper you play into the shoe (fewer decks remaining), the more valuable your running count becomes. This is why casinos shuffle early—to reduce your advantage.
How True Count Affects Your Bet Size
Most systems use true count to determine bet sizing. Higher true count = higher bet.
Betting Units by True Count
Kelly Criterion Alternative
Some professional players use the Kelly Criterion for optimal bet sizing:
Bet Size = Edge × Bankroll × 2
Example: 2% edge, $10,000 bankroll = $400 bet
This maximizes long-term growth while minimizing risk of ruin.
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Try True Count Calculator →Real-time true count calculation. Perfect for learning and practice.